Geopolitical & War Risk
Structured geopolitical risk modelling for lenders, insurers, and multinationals — sovereign spread and rating dynamics, sanctions exposure, war and political-violence pricing, and supply-chain concentration analytics.
Background reading on this work: Sovereign Risk in a Fragmented World and The Geopolitical Premium in Supply Chains.
Outcomes you can expect
- A sovereign and country-risk view that ties to capital and pricing
- Sanctions and concentration exposures made visible and monitored
- Scenario narratives boards can act on, not just talk about
Typical engagements
- Sovereign spread and rating-transition modelling
- Sanctions exposure mapping and monitoring
- War and political-violence pricing frameworks
- Supply-chain concentration and geopolitical premium analytics
Insights articles that go deeper on geopolitical & war risk.
Sovereign Risk in a Fragmented World
Sovereign risk assessment now demands more than credit ratings. A four-pillar framework for finance professionals navigating a fractured geopolitical environment.
Read the articleThe Geopolitical Premium in Supply Chains
Supply chain disruption is a material financial risk, not an operational headache. A framework for pricing the geopolitical premium and choosing mitigations.
Read the articleGeopolitical Risk in ICAAP
Geopolitical risk is not a risk type. It is a shock generator that arrives through credit, market, operational and liquidity channels — and that is how ICAAP should model it.
Read the articleMarine Cargo Accumulation and AI Exposure
The largest marine losses of the modern era were accumulations nobody had measured. AI and maritime intelligence now make real-time exposure management possible — and soon, expected.
Read the article